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Poll: Hispanics favor Obama

UTICA, N.Y. — As we enter the final stretch of the presidential elections, Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, appears to have solidified his support among the large majority of Hispanic likely voters.

In a news release, Zogby pollsters said:

Obama is favored by 72 percent of likely Hispanic voters while Republican candidate Sen. John McCain of Arizona holds just 22 percent support, according to a new Zogby International telephone survey of Latinos nationwide.

Another 4.5 percent of Hispanic likely voters support other candidates while 2 percent remain undecided.

Zogby International’s telephone survey of 704 Hispanic/Latino likely voters nationwide was conducted Oct. 16 – 30, 2008, and carries a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points.

Obama has maintained his stronghold among Latinos since Zogby’s earlier nationwide telephone survey of Hispanic likely voters was released on Oct. 20. The earlier poll showed 70 percent of Hispanic respondents favored Obama while 21% supported McCain. Zogby’s first survey was conducted among 600 Hispanic/Latino likely voters on Oct. 3-17, 2008 and held a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, the release said.

In the 2004 presidential elections, Latinos helped propel Republican George W. Bush to re-election when he secured 40% of the Hispanic vote. This year, with the increase in the Hispanic population and expanded voter registration efforts nationwide, the Latino vote could be a determining factor in all the battleground states.

In our latest survey, an estimated 58% of Hispanic likely voters identify themselves as Democrats and 19% call themselves Republicans, while another 23% percent consider themselves Independents.

Both presidential candidates continue to garner support among Latinos in their respective parties. McCain now enjoys 78% of Hispanic Republicans up by two percent while Obama’s support has increased to 92% from 83% in the earlier survey. 

Among Latino respondents who identify themselves as Independent voters, Obama maintains a majority of support. The Democratic candidate now enjoys 66% of support among these respondents, an increase of 6% from our previous survey. There has been a marked decrease for McCain – from 30% to 18% – among these swing voters. 

Each presidential candidate has strengthened his support within his traditional ideological base. Senator Obama now enjoys 89% support among liberals up 5 points while McCain’s support among conservatives has risen to 45% from 35% of Hispanic likely voters. Yet, Obama maintains much support – 47% – of Hispanic likely voters who consider themselves conservatives.

The large majority of moderates – 76% – continue to support Obama while 18% support McCain.

Catholic likely voters in the Hispanic community have increased their support for Obama to 78% from 72% in the past several days while McCain’s support has dropped by more than three points among this subgroup to 18%. Among Hispanic Protestants surveyed, Obama’s support remains at 60% and McCain’s support has increased by more than 5 points to 36%.

In recent years, there have been an increasing number of self-identified “born-again” or “evangelical” Christians in the Latino community nationwide. Although traditionally this subgroup identifies itself as conservative and is supportive of the Republican party, this year Hispanic “born-again” respondents are divided in their support for the two presidential hopefuls. 42% of respondents favor McCain while 53% support Obama.

Obama maintains a majority of support among all age groups surveyed. Among 18-24 year olds, 80% favor Obama while McCain supports remains at about 9%. Surprisingly, Third Party candidate Ralph Nader is now supported by 8% of this youth vote. In Zogby’s Oct. 20th poll, Nader had not even registered any support among these respondents. At the same time, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, who had enjoyed 4% of support among these younger Hispanic voters in our earlier survey, no longer maintains any support in this subgroup. McCain’s highest amount of support – 34% – is among the following age group, 55-69.

Obama has a majority of support in the Latino community among all income groups surveyed. The highest support for Obama – 77% – is among individuals who earn less than $25,000 while McCain’s strongest support is among individuals who earn more than $100,000. Within this high-income Hispanic subgroup, McCain has lost significant support from 44% to 28% since our last survey.

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November 3, 2008 - Posted by | **MAIN**, Politics | , , , , , , , ,

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